Boris Johnson is going through a dramatic vote of no confidence in the present day as insurgent Tory MPs search to kill off his management.
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee, confirmed this morning that he has now acquired the 54 letters from get together colleagues wanted to set off a vote.
The key poll, which can happen at Westminster at between 6pm and 8pm, raises the chance that Mr Johnson’s tenure might come to a crashing finish lower than three years after he received a surprising 80-strong Commons majority.
It comes after a gentle stream of Tory MPs referred to as publicly for the Prime Minister to face down within the wake of Sue Grey’s report into unlawful Covid events in No 10 and Whitehall.
In an effort to oust the Prime Minister nevertheless the rebels will want 180 MPs, and allies of Mr Johnson – together with members of the Cupboard – have made clear he’s decided to combat to remain on.
Listed below are the important thing questions concerning the upcoming vote.
What’s the mechanism for eradicating the Tory chief?
Conservative Celebration guidelines permit MPs to drive a vote of no confidence of their chief, with a lot of the duty resting within the palms of the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady.
A complete of 54 letters of no confidence from Tory MPs, representing 15 per cent of the 360-strong parliamentary get together, are wanted to set off a vote.
Sir Graham has acquired a gentle stream of letters in latest days as Tories hung out of their constituencies consulting native events about their place.
He introduced this morning that the edge had been reached – after ready for the Platinum Jubilee celebrations to conclude.
A minimum of 50 per cent of Tory MPs should vote ‘no confidence’ for the Prime Minister to lose.
Most predictions recommend Boris Johnson is more likely to win in the present day’s no confidence vote, however he might nonetheless emerge wounded
What number of Tory MPs have despatched letters to date?
We all know greater than 54 letters should have gone in to set off the no confidence vote, however the precise quantity is confidential until the MP sending it makes it public.
Which means solely Sir Graham is aware of exactly what number of letters there are at anybody time – and he’s famously secretive concerning the numbers.
Virtually on daily basis final week Tory MPs declared they’d submitted letters of no confidence of their chief.
Greater than 30 Tory MPs have publicly urged the PM to resign amid the fallout from Partygate, however they haven’t all confirmed whether or not they have submitted letters.
Jesse Norman – a long-term supporter of Mr Johnson – in the present day turned the most recent Tory MP to announce that he had submitted a letter to Sir Graham.
In a letter to the PM posted on social media, Mr Norman, the MP for Hereford and South Herefordshire, mentioned Mr Johnson had presided over ‘a tradition of informal law-breaking’ in No 10 and that his declare to be vindicated by the Sue Grey report was ‘grotesque’.
Earlier this 12 months Mr Johnson turned the primary serving UK Prime Minister discovered to have damaged the legislation.
He refused to face down after receiving a single high quality for attending a lockdown-breaching occasion in Downing Road in 2020 throughout the coronavirus pandemic.
However assist for him amongst Conservatives has ebbed away in latest weeks following the publication of an inner inquiry which discovered he presided over a tradition of such events that ran late into the evening and even featured a drunken combat amongst workers.
A number of Tory MPs have come ahead to say they don’t consider the get together can win the subsequent normal election beneath Mr Johnson’s management.
Opinion polls have proven deep public disapproval over the scandal, with massive majorities of individuals saying he knowingly lied about ‘Partygate’ and that he ought to resign.
The Tories have suffered a number of electoral setbacks throughout his tenure, together with dropping historically protected seats to the Liberal Democrats in by-elections and a whole lot of councillors in native elections in early Could.
The get together can also be predicted to lose two extra by-elections later this month, in southwest and northern England.
What occurs between now and the vote this night?
Between now and the vote between 6pm and 8pm this night, Tory MPs will likely be subjected to a frantic wave of lobbying by the Prime Minister and his allies.
MPs will even be collared for his or her voting intentions with a purpose to goal lobbying efforts at potential rebels.
Cupboard ministers have instantly rallied spherical Mr Johnson, so will – outwardly a minimum of – be becoming a member of makes an attempt to push the vote in his favour.
Opponents of the PM are more likely to be equally energetic.
How with the bodily voting course of work?
A poll field that’s stored within the workplace of one of many 1922 Committee’s govt members will likely be used for the vote.
It’s seemingly the field will likely be positioned in the identical room the place MPs collect for conferences of the committee every week, on the centre of a protracted hall on the primary ground of the Palace of Westminster, overlooking the Thames.
Tory MPs will vote between 6pm and 8pm by secret poll and, similar to at a normal election, pictures will likely be banned.
That is meant to forestall the PM’s allies from demanding photographic proof that an MP has voted in his favour.
The concept is for MPs to be allowed to vote in keeping with their conscience. Any MP who’s away from Westminster can nominate a proxy to vote on their behalf.
Sir Graham Brady oversees the method as chair of the backbench 1922 Committee
When will the consequence be introduced?
The method is an easy yes-or-no vote is held, with the chief technically solely needing to win assist from a easy majority of MPs.
Sir Graham mentioned preparations for when the announcement would happen will likely be launched ‘later in the present day’.
Given outcomes will likely be counted immediately and there are usually not a very massive variety of poll papers to undergo, it’s more likely to happen in a short time.
It’s seemingly Sir Graham will do as he did in 2018, and assemble MPs and journalists in the identical committee room the place voting befell earlier within the day.
He’ll then announce that the parliamentary get together does or doesn’t trust in Mr Johnson, earlier than revealing the variety of votes forged on both sides.
Sir Graham mentioned he hoped there can be a ‘clear consequence’.
What occurs if he loses?
The chief is sacked if they don’t win a majority of votes from MPs, and a management contest begins wherein they can not stand.
Nonetheless, they usually keep on as Prime Minister till a substitute is elected.
In a management contest MPs whittle down the sphere of contenders to 2 earlier than get together members have the ultimate say.
How does a Tory management contest work?
If Mr Johnson is voted out or pressured to resign, a management contest to exchange him as the pinnacle of the Tory Celebration would happen – though he’s more likely to stay in put up as Prime Minister till a successor is in place.
The competition takes place in two phases.
Within the first stage, Conservative MPs put themselves ahead as candidates.
All Tory MPs then vote in a sequence of rounds to scale back the variety of candidates till solely two stay.
The second stage of the competition sees the 2 remaining candidates put to a vote of Conservative Celebration members.
Mr Johnson received the management contest in 2019 in opposition to Jeremy Hunt, following Theresa Could’s resignation.
And if he survives?
If Mr Johnson survives, beneath Conservative Celebration guidelines no additional confidence vote could be held by the 1922 Committee for one more 12 months.
Nonetheless, Sir Graham in the present day acknowledged that Mr Johnson won’t essentially be protected even when he survives tonight’s vote.
Though the Conservative committee’s guidelines say there couldn’t be one other confidence vote for 12 months, Sir Graham mentioned these procedures may very well be modified.
Theresa Could – pictured together with her husband Philip on the Platinum Jubilee Thanksgiving service at St Paul’s – additionally confronted a no confidence vote
‘Technically it’s doable for guidelines to be modified however the rule at current is there can be a interval of grace,’ he informed reporters.
However even when Mr Johnson survives the vote this night, his management may very well be fatally undermined if a big variety of MPs vote in opposition to him.
Might he resign anyway if he solely wins by a slender margin?
Technically sure, however the indicators popping out of Quantity 10 recommend he’s decided to combat on.
‘Tonight is an opportunity to finish months of hypothesis and permit the federal government to attract a line and transfer on, delivering on the folks’s priorities,’ a Downing Road spokesman mentioned.
‘The PM welcomes the chance to make his case to MPs and can remind them that once they’re united and targeted on the problems that matter to voters there isn’t a extra formidable political drive.’
His fame as a political survivor who has resisted a raft of different calls to resign previously additionally suggests he must be pressured out.
What if he determined to stop instantly?
The cupboard would agree on a short lived successor whereas a management contest befell.
That is more likely to be Mr Johnson’s deputy, Dominic Raab.
Who might substitute Mr Johnson?
One main drawback for the rebels is the shortage of an apparent substitute for Mr Johnson.
Rishi Sunak, beforehand considered the favorite, was additionally fined over Partygate and there’s no different entrance runner.
Former Cupboard minister Jeremy Hunt has been touted as a contender, whereas Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is driving excessive with get together grass roots. Tom Tugendhat is the one MP to have overtly declared he needs to be PM.
When was the mechanism to exchange the chief final used?
The final confidence vote was held in December 2018 when, after months of hypothesis, sufficient MPs determined they not had religion in Theresa Could’s management.
She received the competition 200 votes to 117 – making her immune to a different problem for a 12 months.
However she was pressured to announce her resignation the next spring amid one other revolt over Brexit, paving the best way for Mr Johnson to take the helm.